Brexit remains the right choice for Britain

On the 21st of February 2016 I publicly advocated for the UK electorate to vote leave in the UK’s referendum on continued membership of the European Union. Between that time and the night of the referendum, I campaigned constantly for the campaign to leave the European Union, with my final public plea published on the 21st of June 2016. On the 23rd of June 2016, 17.4 million UK nationals voted to leave the European Union; a majority of 52%.

Since that time friends and acquaintances have often asked me if I made a mistake. More importantly, many of those who listened to my views during the Brexit campaign, and who voted Leave subsequently, asked me if they have made a mistake. It is for those who listened to me and who followed my guidance that I say this clearly: Brexit remains the right choice for Britain.

Brexit myths:

I want to start by dispelling some Brexit myths that have built up since the referendum.

Firstly, I want to dispel you of the notion that the UK government is doing nothing, has developed no plans, no ideas or serious proposals for how to implement Brexit. The UK has issued extensive strategies, contingencies and proposals to work alongside the EU that cover atomic energy, a new EU trade deal, EU citizens’ rights, Northern Ireland, existing judicial proceedings, law & securityscience and innovation, Data protection for UK & EU citizens, advice for UK citizens living in the EU, advice for EU citizens living in the UKguidance on trucking, on aviation, and so on. The UK has also guaranteed UK organisations all funding they would have received from the EU until 2020 (when the EU budget was due to end anyway). When people read in the papers that the UK has done nothing and has no plan, you need to understand that this is a tactic not a description of reality.

It suits the EU negotiators to refuse to engage with the UK, to run down the clock and ignore proposals. This includes the use of technology on Northern Ireland’s border, which the EU’s own investigation showed was a feasible and practical solution. Smart and sensible ideas are being ignored by EU negotiators as part of the EU’s negotiating tactics. These tactics are brilliantly described by Yanis Varoufakis in his book on how the EU ignored extremely detailed, expertly modelled and internationally supported Greek proposals during their debt renegotiation with the EU in 2015.  In short, ignoring sensible suggestions to force an ultimatum is a tried and tested EU tactic, along with leaking and selectively quoting private conversations. This is normal and should be expected. Importantly, it should be understood that the EU is trying to create a narrative that the UK is unprepared, but this is only a cleverly fabricated narrative. It is not grounded in facts.

Secondly, I want to emphasise that the existential challenges at the heart of the European Union, namely its democratic deficit, its growing illiberal tendencies, and the failure of the EU principle of solidarity, remain unresolved. As the famous pro-European, Hungarian philosopher Ivan Krastev recently noted, the EU’s continued failure to resolve the bloc’s divisions on immigration is straining the solidarity of members and even their adherence to the EU’s Human Rights Act. The rejection of drowning refugees by Italy is one recent example of this, and Hungary’s recent anti-migrant act is another. Moreover, despite the best efforts of strongly pro-European individuals, such as Guy Verhofstadt and Emmanuel Macron, to warn of Europe’s need for reform, the only concession that has been granted to these voices has been the creation of a small EU budget (separate from the EU commission budget). However, even this proposal is less progressive than it seems, because of a German-imposed requirement for funds to be linked to acceptance of migrants, thus immediately reducing funding to countries in Eastern Europe and increasing Germany’s receipts of EU funds.

Thirdly, while it has been popular for commentators to accuse people who voted Brexit of being racist and suggesting that the country wishes to revert to a little England mentality, the facts do not support their narrative. While Austria, Hungary, Italy and Poland discuss plans for an “anti-migrant Axis”, recent polling data from June 2018, shows that UK public attitudes towards immigration in the UK were more positive than at any time since 2011, a stunning rebuke to the initial rise in hate crime that immediately followed Brexit[1].

Brexit migrants FT

Brexit migrants eurobarometer 1Brexit migrants eurobarometer 2

It is also important to dispel another Brexit myth that if the referendum were to be held again today the result would be different. The data proves otherwise. As of December 2017, polling from YouGov showed that 55% of the UK public thought that Brexit should happen, regardless of their original view on the referendum. Recent data all indicates a similar result. None of which is to say the current British government is doing a great job. It is plain for the British public to see that they are not.

Building a better Britain:

Rebuffing growing misinformation is vital, but the backbone of my belief in Brexit is distinct from these arguments. I believe in Brexit for the following reasons:

I believe Brexit remains the right choice for Britain because I believe it allows us to build a trade policy that is fairer to the British people, delivering better economic outcomes. While the US, Chinese and Indian economies boom, the UK is locked into a customs union with the slowest growing economic area on earth. As of 2017, 15 out of Britain’s top 25 trading export partners are from outside the EU, and 11 of those (including US, India, China, Australia, Japan and Canada) accounted for 36.4% of all UK exports. These trading relationships relied on the dreaded WTO rules. Amusingly, Canada has confirmed that the UK could have enhanced free trade access from the first day of Brexit. They will not be alone[2].

Brexit economies

I believe Brexit will also make Britain’s immigration policy fairer. For immigration it remains fundamentally unjust that a doctor, engineer or an experienced entrepreneur will find it harder to work in the UK if they come from the USA, Canada, Chile, Japan or Colombia than an 18-year-old from France, Estonia, Portugal or Austria. Moreover, despite having a free-movement area with the EU, data from the UN overwhelmingly shows that British citizens would rather live in Australia, Canada and the USA than any country in Europe[3]. UN data shows that more Brits have chosen to live in Australia than all of Western Europe combined.

UK immigrants

Brexit allows the UK to correct these imbalances and create an immigration system based on reciprocity that allows British citizens to live and work where they actually are trying to go, whilst building trade bridges with nations that are growing. Dynamic ideas to addressing these opportunities of new immigration systems and free trade deals include the potential of the UK joining regional free trade groupings such as NAFTA and the TPP, while others have also floated the idea of a new Australia, Canada, New Zealand UK free trade zone (CANZUK). I would suggest that the UK should explore new trade and visa options with dynamic regional markets such as the Pacific Alliance in Latin America too.

Lastly, I believe in Brexit because of the phenomenal role it has played in restoring British democracy. While the traditional major political parties in France, Germany, Italy, Austria, Greece, Spain and the Netherlands have almost all collapsed, or seen their share of the vote significantly cut, the British main parties have rebounded to their highest combined share of the vote in almost 30 years. It is not hard to see why. In the 2000’s Europe grew up with a political obsession for “middle-way” politics, a convenient euphemism for technocratic governance and offering voters no real choice. It was common to hear the refrain “they are all the same”, and why bother voting? The electorate didn’t see the point in voting, and UK voter turnout fell below 70% for the first time since the advent of universal franchise. It appears that if people are not offered a chance to vote for what matters to them, they turn to parties that will offer them that choice. Across Europe the radical left and fascist right-wing parties have surged. Many of them are now in government. Brexit has stopped all of this. The far-right is almost entirely annihilated in polling (with the only revival recently due to the risk of a soft Brexit), the Labour party is the largest political movement in Europe and the UK’s election turnout is at its highest in over 20 years.

Closing Comments:

Before I finish, I also want to address the recent news surrounding Brexit. It is clear that the Conservative cabinet is deeply divided by it, but reassuringly so is the nation and so are the Labour party. It can seem concerning to see bickering at a public level from the Cabinet, but the very fact that there are disagreements and strongly held views attests to the fact that the current UK government is reflecting a broader sway of stakeholder interests than it is credited with. The current UK white paper is a demonstration of this. While ensuring the UK leaves the Single Market and the Customs Union, it also ensures that the UK regulatory framework is aligned on goods with the EU so that businesses do not face disruption. Clearly this deal does not suit all parties, but this is the point of compromise.

The resignations of Boris Johnson and David Davis are less controversial than the press would like them to be. The fact that they were staggered suggests an attempt to avoid triggering a crisis of confidence and a leadership challenge, as has been affirmed by David Davis. Secondly, it leaves Theresa May free to pursue a plan she believes in without cabinet members who do not endorse that plan. The greater risk does not come from the resignations but rather any further attempts by naïve and reckless cabinet members like Phillip Hammond to pretend that the Conservatives can repeal Brexit and escape without being destroyed and permanently dividing the nation. As the FT recently put it, the Conservative party is the party of Brexit.

It is easy to become disheartened by Brexit when the headlines often seem full of gloom, but it is important to take a step back. For every well-timed fear story like the Airbus threat to leave the UK, there are stories like Boeing committing to further UK spending and Australia awarding BAE UK massive defence export contracts. For every threat of jobs leaving London, like the 5,000 threatened finance roles, there are new commitments by companies like Facebook to employ up to 800 new staff, with office space for 6,000. The news will always try to showcase a clickbait headline, but if you can, try and ignore the noise.

Lastly we should not be afraid of a “no-deal Brexit”. Such an event would cost the EU over £100 billion, creating a continent wide recession, with the most severe impact being felt in Ireland and Germany. Given the growing anger and division in Europe over the increased EU contributions required by the EU’s wealthier states (Germany’s contribution will increase 16%) and how the shortfall in funding should be addressed, combined with the on-going battles over asylum, immigration and law & order, the EU would be suicidal to refuse to offer concessions in the face of a ‘no deal’. The path has been challenging and we are not out of the woods yet, so one should steel one’s nerves and prepare to witness continued anti-Brexit campaigning right until the eleventh hour. Just remember – Brexit is the best choice for the future of Britain.

 

 

[1] For further great information and graphics on how the UK is considerably more tolerant towards immigration than the majority of EU members, check out the Eurobarometer scores from April 2018: https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/news/results-special-eurobarometer-integration-immigrants-european-union_en

[2] There has been a significant effort by the EU to scare Britons about the challenges of trading from outside the single market and relying on WTO rules. Lets put this in context: The EU’s average tariff rate for countries like the US, Canada, etc, was 2.3% on goods as of 2013 (spoiler: it has not increased since), while for cars the EU recently proposed reducing global car tariffs to zero. While many organisations have highlighted the importance of non-tariff barriers, i.e. different product rules & standards, it is worth noting that batteries (for electric vehicles), micro-chips for phone, computers and tablets, as well as basic raw materials, all enter the EU from non-EU members. In short it may increase some short term costs, but accessing a broader array of markets will make UK goods more competitive as further free trade deals are signed.

[3] To put this into context, as of 2017 the UN estimated that there were 3.8 million UK expats across the world. The largest EU locations for British nationals were Spain (308,872), Ireland (278,000 people), France (188,000), Germany (103,700) and Italy (72,000). Many of which are retired and not of working age. In the Anglosphere the largest locations were Australia (1,351,846), USA (748,206), Canada (624,411) and New Zealand (272,071).

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