Could the Trump presidency end with a faked illness and a presidential pardon? This is the question I have been asking myself recently and increasingly I am convinced that this is the most rational route I can see. So how would that actually look, why would the administration follow this route and how would it play out?
Let’s review where we are.
The current president clearly did not intend to win the election. While it was already widely suspected, the fact that Michael Wolff has audio recordings from the White House and staff confirming this is significant. Moreover, Trump is now at risk of having either his son or his son-in-law impeached by an ongoing FBI investigation.
But before we continue, here is a very brief recap for those who have no idea what is going on:
Since the Trump presidency began a series of scandals and rumours have swirled around whether Trump or his team received political and/or financial support from Russia. These have exploded as an investigation led by the Justice Department’s Special Counsel Robert Mueller have repeatedly detained and charged key members of the Trump team. Thus far three campaign officials have pleaded guilty to various misdemeanors and the question is whether they will reveal even more information on the senior members of Trump’s circle, in return for reduced sentences. If you’d like a far more detailed explanation, Vox and the NYT have two great pieces linked here.
The concern then is that Trump, already embroiled in scandals, now risks losing a very close family member to a story that is intimately tied to his own name and brand – the election of Trump as the President. But why cant he just pardon Jared Kushner or Donald Trump Jnr? Better yet, why not fire Mueller? The answer is the Republican party itself.
The Republican party leadership are distraught. They have held all three branches of government for a year, yet failed to repeal Obamacare and only managed an overhaul of the tax bill by ignoring every Democrat and out of internal desperation for a “win”. Even worse, the Republican President has called several African countries “shitholes” in a congressional meeting on immigration, openly admitted that he can do what he wants with women because he is famous and has defended White Supremacists. To add insult to injury he risks starting a war in North Korea and he has destroyed US credibility on trade. By weakening the WTO through failure to appoint key figures, ending both the TTIP and the TPP treaties, renegotiating NAFTA and imposing unilateral tariffs, Trump is managing to undermine the Republican brand on a core issue – trade and economic prosperity.
In short, Republican loyalty to the President is non-existent at the executive level. The only thing holding both Trump and the party together is the electoral base of radical republicans who first elected Trump in the US primaries. But while they may protect Trump from attacks from the establishment Republicans, that doesn’t mean they would attack the establishment if Trump voluntarily left the post.
This leads me to my current hypothesis: Trump wants to leave and save face in the process. Trump also wants the risk of criminal charges to be removed, without him having to make the move himself. Meanwhile the Republican party want a smooth transition of power from Trump to Pence, with an agreement that the radical wing that Trump/Bannon pander too, will support a more moderate Republican platform. In such a scenario, it is perfectly plausible that the administration will wait until inside news reaches them that criminal charges are being drawn up against the closest members of the Trump family. Then the pieces on the chess board move.
In the weeks before charges are brought, Trump will appear in public less frequently and news of medical treatments will be leaked to the press. In the final two weeks, Trump will officially be “treated” for a series of “undisclosed illnesses” and charges will be officially brought against Trump’s circle. Pence will strike a deal with the Republican leadership and the Trump family that he will pardon all involved parties, but for this to work the charges have to be issued. Trump’s inner circle, whether it is Trump Jnr or Jared, will have to take the fall and accept all responsibility for the actions.
With the investigation concluded and charges brought, Trump can now resign on ill health and Pence can pardon the family on the grounds of political inference by Mueller. Besmirching his name may not be accepted by many, but it will placate the Trump base and help them to save face as they leave office. Then we will have a Pence Presidency.
At any rate, this is just a thought. Let me know what you think.